How accurate are weather forecasts?
The Bureau of Meteorology installed a multi-gazillion dollar supercomputer a year or two back, with the aim of improving the accuracy of weather forecasts.
How accurate are they? Well over about a week, I compared forecasts (including up to a week ahead of the day) against the actual weather reported the next day. I was seeking to answer these key questions:
- Do they alter forecasts markedly as the day gets closer?
- Are the all-important forecasts the day before actually accurate, so you know if you can leave the house without taking a brolly?
- Is this kind of detail so deadly boring and sleep-inducing as I’m suddenly suspecting it might be?
| Day | Forecast days in advance | Actual weather | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Mon 9th May | Mainly fine | Mainly fine | Mainly fine | Fog then fine, 18 | Fog then fine, 18 | Fog then fine, 18 | Fog then fine, 18 | Fine, 17.3 |
| Tue 10th May | Mainly fine | Mainly fine | Mainly fine | Fine, 18 | Fine, 18 | Fine, 18 | Fine, 18 | Fine, 18.5 |
| Wed 11th May | Mainly fine | Mainly fine | ? | Shower or two, 17 | Early shower, 17 | Early shower, 17 | Shower or two, 17 | Fine, 19.1 |
| Thu 12th May | Mainly fine | ? | Mostly fine | Fine, 18 | Fine, 18 | Fine, 18 | Fine, 18 | Fine, 16.7 |
| Fri 13th May | ? | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Fine, 18 | Fine, 18.3 |
| Sat 14th May | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Fog then fine, 19 | Fog then fine, 19 | Fine, 21.8 |
| Sun 15th May | Mostly fine | Mostly fine | Fine, cool | Mostly fine | Mostly fine, 17 | Mostly fine, 17 | Fine, 17 | Fine, 19.3 |
Notes: ? — oddly, on Saturday 7th of May, they weren’t brave enough to forecast more than 4 days ahead. And don’t ask me what the difference between “Mostly fine” and “Mainly fine” is.
If you’ve got nothing better to do: See all the figures (XLS, 19.5Kb)
In conclusion, it seems they’re pretty accurate, with temperatures usually within a couple of degrees of that forecast the previous day. Even the advance forecasts don’t change a great deal before the day. Mind you, we did have a run of fine autumn weather. But still, I’m suitably impressed.
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Foggy highway
(Farnsworth Avenue, Footscray, last Sunday morning)
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Thirteen
Coming into Flinders Street…
“Train arriving platform 13, this train is not taking passengers.”
The guy standing in the doorway pipes up. “I hate platform 13.”
“Why, ‘cos it’s deep underground in the middle of nowhere?”
“No” he shuddered, “I just don’t like the number 13.”
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Tipping and the draft
I’m at home today, having a day off to get some errands done. Like picking up my new computer. And tidying the desk so it can be set up.
Only 4 in the tipping over the weekend. Perhaps my problem is that my tipping method (with which I won one competition, and came equal first in another, last year) relies on past team performance. And with the annual draft shuffling all the teams around, past team performance doesn’t count for a lot in the first few rounds of the season.
I wouldn’t claim to be an AFL expert, but from what I can see, the draft is a Good Thing. It means that the poorest of teams get a boost at the end of the season, to stay competitive. It keeps the game interesting and stops strong clubs dominating for years on end.
Essendon, for instance, seemed unbeatable in the late 90s (though it didn’t necessarily translate into winning the Premiership), but are languishing down near the bottom of the ladder now. Whereas I distinctly remember only a few years ago, St Kilda fans bemoaning their continual losses, and taking consolation that they’d get the best draft picks at the end of the year.
It’s good for the game. But it’s bad for my tipping.
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Bad Santa… worse film
Bad Santa. I seem to recall this got reasonable reviews last year. Maybe it was the Christmas spirit that skewed critics’ judgements. I like poking fun at tradition as much as anybody, but I found it dull (and Marita fell asleep — nuff said?). The Joke got a few laughs early on, but wore thin after about the first half hour. Once the dwarf turned Capital B Bad, there were no characters you could have much sympathy for, and the plot went virtually nowhere. So much for everything the Coen brothers touch turning to gold. This is the sort of thing I wouldn’t watch again if it were the only thing on the video on a long haul flight.
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Happy birthday Isaac
Isaac turned 10 today. Ten. The big one-zero.
It’s hard to express how I feel, how happy I am that he (and his brother) have turned out to be so happy, healthy, smart and considerate. The time since he was born has flown by, really — it seems so recently that he was just a tiny baby in my arms. But now he’s ten. I’m proud of him, and so pleased he’s well on the way to being an adult.
(And I got four strikes while bowling at his birthday party at AMF. So yay me!)
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Vital statistics
Computers I have bought – 1995 vs 2000 vs 2005 (the one I bought yesterday).
| May 1995 | June 2000 | May 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Processor | 60 Mhz | 650 Mhz 11 times faster than 1995 |
3 Ghz 5 times faster then 2000 50 times faster than 1995 (Actually it’s not really valid to compare raw clock speeds) |
| Memory | 8 Mb | 256 Mb 32 times more than 1995 |
1 Gb 4 times more than 2000 128 times more than 1995 |
| Hard disk | 540 Mb | 10 Gb 18 times more than 1995 |
120 Gb 12 times more than 2000 220 times more than 1995 |
| CD drive | 4x CD | ? DVD A bunch faster |
16x DVD+/-RW A bunch faster |
| OS | DOS 6.22 Windows 3.1 |
Windows 98SE | Windows XP Pro |
| and also | 14 inch monitor Keyboard, mouse, etc |
15 inch monitor Keyboard, mouse, etc |
No monitor Keyboard, optical mouse, etc |
| Cost | $2699 | $2892 | $1231 |
| Current status | Decommissioned Mostly disposed of |
Broke down, being cannibalised | On order Hopefully ready tomorrow |
(For a laugh, check out the catalogue from 1995.)
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Quick review: Huckabees
I ♥ Huckabees: Quite funny, strange plot. The concept of the existential detectives reminded me Dirk Gently, but I haven’t read it in about a decade, and don’t really recall how similar it is. Very enjoyable.
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