Archive for May 20th, 2005

Fri 20 May 2005 - Funeral for a tram stop

Following the decision to close tram stops in Collins St, Flinders St and Victoria Pde, and expectations that more will follow, there will be a funeral for tram stop 7 at Russell and Collins Streets on Monday:

R.I.P.
Tram Stop 7, Route 109
1886-2005

Public Funeral
12.30pm, Monday 23rd May 2005
Cnr Collins St & Russell St

Please bring your friends and colleagues, and join the Collins Street Precinct Association, the Public Transport Users Association, Collins St traders, residents and others to pay your respects to a tram stop that has served Melbourne well.

More information

Fri 20 May 2005 - How accurate are weather forecasts?

The Bureau of Meteorology installed a multi-gazillion dollar supercomputer a year or two back, with the aim of improving the accuracy of weather forecasts.

How accurate are they? Well over about a week, I compared forecasts (including up to a week ahead of the day) against the actual weather reported the next day. I was seeking to answer these key questions:

  • Do they alter forecasts markedly as the day gets closer?
  • Are the all-important forecasts the day before actually accurate, so you know if you can leave the house without taking a brolly?
  • Is this kind of detail so deadly boring and sleep-inducing as I’m suddenly suspecting it might be?
Day Forecast days in advance Actual weather
7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Mon 9th May Mainly fine Mainly fine Mainly fine Fog then fine, 18 Fog then fine, 18 Fog then fine, 18 Fog then fine, 18 Fine, 17.3
Tue 10th May Mainly fine Mainly fine Mainly fine Fine, 18 Fine, 18 Fine, 18 Fine, 18 Fine, 18.5
Wed 11th May Mainly fine Mainly fine ? Shower or two, 17 Early shower, 17 Early shower, 17 Shower or two, 17 Fine, 19.1
Thu 12th May Mainly fine ? Mostly fine Fine, 18 Fine, 18 Fine, 18 Fine, 18 Fine, 16.7
Fri 13th May ? Mostly fine Mostly fine Mostly fine Mostly fine Mostly fine Fine, 18 Fine, 18.3
Sat 14th May Mostly fine Mostly fine Mostly fine Mostly fine Mostly fine Fog then fine, 19 Fog then fine, 19 Fine, 21.8
Sun 15th May Mostly fine Mostly fine Fine, cool Mostly fine Mostly fine, 17 Mostly fine, 17 Fine, 17 Fine, 19.3

Notes: ? — oddly, on Saturday 7th of May, they weren’t brave enough to forecast more than 4 days ahead. And don’t ask me what the difference between “Mostly fine” and “Mainly fine” is.

If you’ve got nothing better to do: See all the figures (XLS, 19.5Kb)

In conclusion, it seems they’re pretty accurate, with temperatures usually within a couple of degrees of that forecast the previous day. Even the advance forecasts don’t change a great deal before the day. Mind you, we did have a run of fine autumn weather. But still, I’m suitably impressed.