The Bureau of Meteorology installed a multi-gazillion dollar supercomputer a year or two back, with the aim of improving the accuracy of weather forecasts.
How accurate are they? Well over about a week, I compared forecasts (including up to a week ahead of the day) against the actual weather reported the next day. I was seeking to answer these key questions:
- Do they alter forecasts markedly as the day gets closer?
- Are the all-important forecasts the day before actually accurate, so you know if you can leave the house without taking a brolly?
- Is this kind of detail so deadly boring and sleep-inducing as I’m suddenly suspecting it might be?
| Day |
Forecast days in advance |
Actual weather |
| 7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
| Mon 9th May |
Mainly fine |
Mainly fine |
Mainly fine |
Fog then fine, 18 |
Fog then fine, 18 |
Fog then fine, 18 |
Fog then fine, 18 |
Fine, 17.3 |
| Tue 10th May |
Mainly fine |
Mainly fine |
Mainly fine |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 18.5 |
| Wed 11th May |
Mainly fine |
Mainly fine |
? |
Shower or two, 17 |
Early shower, 17 |
Early shower, 17 |
Shower or two, 17 |
Fine, 19.1 |
| Thu 12th May |
Mainly fine |
? |
Mostly fine |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 16.7 |
| Fri 13th May |
? |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Fine, 18 |
Fine, 18.3 |
| Sat 14th May |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Fog then fine, 19 |
Fog then fine, 19 |
Fine, 21.8 |
| Sun 15th May |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine |
Fine, cool |
Mostly fine |
Mostly fine, 17 |
Mostly fine, 17 |
Fine, 17 |
Fine, 19.3 |
Notes: ? — oddly, on Saturday 7th of May, they weren’t brave enough to forecast more than 4 days ahead. And don’t ask me what the difference between “Mostly fine” and “Mainly fine” is.
If you’ve got nothing better to do: See all the figures (XLS, 19.5Kb)
In conclusion, it seems they’re pretty accurate, with temperatures usually within a couple of degrees of that forecast the previous day. Even the advance forecasts don’t change a great deal before the day. Mind you, we did have a run of fine autumn weather. But still, I’m suitably impressed.